MICHAEL ROSENBERG: Inevitable: Colts over Seattle in Super Bowl

Get ready, folks. Super Bowl XL is 32 days away, which means it's almost time to roll out the red salt. Over at The XL's World Headquarters, we are working overtime -- we're talking, no exaggeration, 18-hour weeks.

We have quadruple-reinforced the bunk beds in the guest quarters, and every night we watch video of the Barber family picnic, so we don't accidentally mistake Ronde for Tiki, or Tiki for Shaun Alexander, who apparently looks like both Ronde and Tiki, which really ticks us off, but we'll try not to mention it if one of them shows up.



Surely, your days and nights have been similar. But we're here to save you time and money, or at least time, by letting you know which groups of big, burly men are most likely to show up at your door in late January, asking how to pronounce "Dequindre.

What follows is a breakdown of the 12 playoff teams, ranked in reverse order of likelihood of winning Super Bowl XL. Wait. That sentence even confused us. Must be the lack of sleep. Teams are ranked from 12 (least likely to celebrate at Ford Field) to one (most likely).


Thanks For Playing; Here's Your Door Prize 12. Pittsburgh

Again, this ranking is based on chances of winning the Super Bowl, not overall team strength. We actually think the Steelers will beat those adorable Bengals kids. The problem is they would then have to win at Indianapolis and likely follow that with a victory at Denver or New England just to make it here. Sorry. Not happening. And it's just as well -- we don't think we could expand the guest quarters enough to accommodate Bill Cowher's chin


11. Jacksonville

The Jags are strong, but they will either start a rusty, immobile quarterback (Byron Leftwich) or inexperienced, ineffective one (David Garrard) ... in a night road game against two-time defending champion New England. We can see Bill Belichick smiling from here. Well, we think he's smiling. Maybe he's just flossing.

Anyway, expect the Jags to be gone by Saturday night, which is a shame. We were kind of hoping they could advise us on what to do when everybody rips the NFL for sticking the Super Bowl in your city.


10. New York Giants

Ah, wouldn't it be nice to see those quaint homebodies from New York come to the Motor City? Wouldn't they be wide-eyed at the big "XL" logo on the Renaissance Center? Don't you think the publicity for Detroit would be glowing?

We, neither. Or maybe us, neither. Anyway, the Giants are running on fumes. Eli Manning's Hall of Fame candidacy is on hold for the moment, though we still love watching him. And the Giants' defense is so banged up, they recently made a desperate call to Lawrence Taylor; thank goodness, the line was busy, because LT was sending women up to his opponents' hotel rooms again.

Stick Around For a Beer. One Beer.


9. Cincinnati

This is the Bengals' first dip in the postseason pool in more than a decade. And though they have plenty of talent, they have no experience, and we have a nagging suspicion they will fold like Enron in a close playoff game. So we can't rank them higher than this.

But next year, the Bengals will be a chic Super Bowl pick for the game in the beautiful city of ... you don't know where it is, do you? No clue, right? What does this tell you? Does it mean that maybe, just maybe, the world's eyes aren't on Detroit as much as we like to think?
(I'd write more, but I think I hear my car being towed.)


8. Chicago

We love that defense. Absolutely love it. And we love the idea of a playoff game in Chicago, which could feature a new quirk to the injury report: players listed as questionable -- windburn.

Alas, we prefer our Super Bowl champions to score points when they are actually on offense. And although the new guy, Rex, is a better quarterback with a cooler name than the old guy (Kyle), the Bears still lack scoring threats. How many 13-10 games can one team win?


7. Washington

This is a typical Joe Gibbs team. It got stronger late in the season with five straight victories. It has a dominant power running game, led by flamboyant Clinton Portis. And the quarterback seems almost inconsequential. (Gibbs won Super Bowls with Mark Rypien, Doug Williams and Joe Theismann and will now attempt to do so with either Mark Brunell, Patrick Ramsey or Tony Stewart. We recommend Stewart.)

So there is a lot to like. But the 'Skins would probably have to win three road games to make it to Detroit, and that sounds like too many, even for a Gibbs team.


6. Tampa Bay

A long time ago, when the rest of the planet thought we were nuts, we picked the Bucs to make the playoffs. We also made some really lousy picks, but we're counting on you not to remember them.

So here are the Bucs. And let's be honest: It would be really, really cool if the star of the Super Bowl in Detroit were none other than Cadillac Williams. But Jon Gruden's boys don't seem ready for prime time. And speaking of "ready for prime time".



Ready for Prime Time 5. Carolina

We shouldn't like the Panthers, simply because they, too, will need to win three road games. But Carolina's path might be easier than it seems. The Panthers' first game is against the fading Giants. With a little luck, they could face the punchless Bears. And that would probably put them in an NFC championship game against Seattle, which would be facing way too much "first Super Bowl in Seahawks history" hype.

So we like Carolina. Every playoff preview needs a dark horse, not that we judge a horse by its shading or anything, and we apologize if we offended any chestnut fillies out there.


4. New England

OK, we admit it. We thought they were finished after every player on the team went on the injured list with some sort of life-threatening illness, and then Indy crushed the Patriots on "Monday Night Football." We were wrong.

These guys are back, and they're rolling, and when they beat Jacksonville on Saturday night, the hype machine will go into overdrive, and understandably so. But these guys have never faced a playoff road like this. And as much as we admire Belichick and Tom Brady, we don't see the Pats three-peating.


3. Seattle

We have seen the Seahawks' kind before. They seem a lot like the 1998 Falcons, or the 1999 Titans, or the 2000 Giants -- teams that put together a big regular season despite many skeptics, prove the skeptics wrong in the playoffs, then lose in the Super Bowl. And that's what we expect them to do.


2. Denver

The Broncos are 13-3, but for some reason people think it's a cheap 13-3, like the Mountain Time Zone uses pesos or something. Denver is getting punished for a) not being Indianapolis, and b) making the playoffs all these years, then losing, most notably by, like, 40 points to the Colts.

But the Broncos are legit. We swear. And we have grown to love Jake Plummer. He's a lot of fun to watch if you don't have any money riding on his team.


The Big Dog 1. Indianapolis

It has not been a good few weeks for the Colts, for reasons both minor (losing a game, and their aura of invincibility, against San Diego) and tragic (the apparent suicide of coach Tony Dungy's son). But we still think this is the best team in the league. It is one of our core beliefs, right up there with always upgrading to the large popcorn.

We're ready for the "they're back" Patriots hype, the "sorry we forgot to hype you before" Broncos hype, the "hey, they're legit" Seahawks hype and even the "they could beat the Colts!" USC/Texas hype.

But we're sticking with Indy. And that's why they get a prime spot in our Starbucks French Roast Extra-Strong Super Bowl Matchup of the Week: Colts vs. Seahawks.
For last week's Shockingly Irrelevant Question, we asked you to come up with a tiebreaker to determine playoff seeds.

Reader John Senger suggested "longest middle name of the backup punter," which might be the most irrelevant answer yet, since teams don't even have backup punters. But the winning answer is "most tackles by a kicker," a pretty obscure idea, which makes it even weirder that it was suggested by both Mike Kennedy of Windsor and Harvey Gross of Virginia, giving us a shockingly irrelevant tie to our tiebreaker question.

For this week's Shockingly Irrelevant Question: What can TV networks do to make the instant-replay wait more entertaining? (Note: "More cheerleader shots" will not make you the winner. We understand our readers love cheerleaders. We've made our peace with it. Let's move on.)
Send your answer, name and hometown to the e-mail address below. The winner gets a big-screen TV, conveniently located in a nearby bar.

Contact MICHAEL ROSENBERG at 313-222-6052 or
rosenberg@freepress.com.