A franchise-turning decision

All first-round NFL draft picks are important, but when a team has a prime, top-five selection, it gets about as good a chance to land a franchise-turning player as it will see.

So when General Manager Ted Thompson makes his pick at No. 5 for the Green Bay Packers on April 29, his decision could be a major step toward the Packers returning to elite status. Or, if he misses on the pick and lands a salary-cap wrecking bust, he could be setting up the Packers for drafting that high a time or two more.

“If you can hit on a franchise player at a key position,” said Floyd Reese, the Tennessee Titans’ general manager, “you’re talking about someone who will be with the franchise for eight, 10, 12 years and win a ton of games for you.”

Recent NFL history, as well as the Packers’ history, however, shows that though the odds for landing a great player go up when selecting in the top five, it’s far from a guarantee a team will land one.

The Packers have picked five times in the top five since the common draft began in 1970 and failed to a stunning degree with those selections. All five players ranged from disappointments to colossal busts: defensive tackle Mike McCoy in 1970; defensive tackle Bruce Clark, who refused to play for the Packers, in 1980; halfback Brent Fullwood in 1987; tackle Tony Mandarich in 1989; and cornerback Terrell Buckley in 1992.

A look at recent NFL drafts paints a more accurate reflection of the odds for landing an outstanding player.

The 20 top-five picks in the drafts from 1999 through 2002 have produced 10 Pro Bowl players. On a more subjective level, they produced seven elite players (tackle Chris Samuels, halfback Jamal Lewis, quarterback Michael Vick, halfback LaDainian Tomlinson, defensive end Julius Peppers, quarterback Donovan McNabb and halfback Edgerrin James); five players who range from decent to good (linebacker LaVar Arrington, defensive end Justin Smith, quarterback David Carr, cornerback Quentin Jammer and halfback Ricky Williams); and eight busts (defensive end Courtney Brown, receiver Peter Warrick, tackle Leonard Davis, defensive tackle Gerard Warren, quarterback Joey Harrington, tackle Mike Williams, quarterback Tim Couch and quarterback Akili Smith.

“Picking as low or as high as we are, depending on which way you look at it, it’s a very important pick for the Packers,” Thompson said this week at the NFL scouting combine. “And we’re convinced at this point there’s going to be a great player, an impact kind of player, at that point. And it’s up to us to find that person and make sure we pick the right guy.”

USC halfback Reggie Bush, the probable No. 1 pick, is the one player virtually assured of not being available when the Packers make their pick. Three quarterbacks could be among the top four selections, and it’s highly likely USC’s Matt Leinart will be gone before the Packers pick, with Texas’ Vince Young also a good bet to go before No. 5. Vanderbilt’s Jay Cutler is the other quarterback who could go in the top four.

Though teams’ draft boards will vary substantially even at the top of the first round and will change some before draft weekend in late April, the closest thing to a consensus is Bush, Leinart and Young are among the top six prospects, along with Virginia tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson, North Carolina State defensive end Mario Williams and Ohio State linebacker A.J. Hawk.