Prospects measuring up for success
If you are the kind of NFL fan who really wants to dig down into all the numbers being broadcast to us about the draft class -- the measurables if you will -- then you may find my take on some of these numbers interesting. Teams are still gathering 'measurable' numbers at Pro Day workouts, so this study is incomplete. But I thought it would be a good time to explain how I look at some of the test scores, and more importantly, how I combine certain test scores to get a better feel for an athlete.
Stop and think about what happens in a football game every single play right after the ball is snapped. The players in the box on both sides of the ball try and explode into the opposing player, attempt to dominate the opponent physically and in the case of the defensive players, get off blocks and get to the ball. The offensive players want to sustain a block, make the defender miss if they are the ball carrier or simply dictate where they want to go.
From the initial snap of the ball, all the way through the five seconds of violence, the elements of strength, power, explosion, agility and body control are the key elements for success. The strongest man in the world isn't worth a damn if he can't step over a pile of bodies down by his feet, the quickest guy on the field can't even get to use his best tools if he is physically dominated by the opponent in front of him. The ability to jump and launch his body become critical factors in blocking passes, making a tackle from an awkward position, or going up in the air to make a catch or defend a pass.
The 40-yard dash seems to steal the show as the marquee measurable and it is the most advertised score to interpret. It has its place in the final grade for an NFL prospect, but I prefer to look at a combination of three measurables to get a sense of a prospect's ability to win in the 'combat' of football. I take the vertical-jump score and add it to the standing broad-jump score, which is added to the number of repetitions on the bench-press test. These three scores are combined to give me a benchmark score, which gives me a good feel for a player's ability to win the mini battle he will engage in while trying to finish a play.
I have been adding these three scores for a long time now and I am always looking for athletes who can score a 70 or better. Some positions naturally score higher than others and they need to by the nature of what is required for these positions on the field. Defensive ends and linebackers will generally score higher than wide receivers or cornerbacks. And since these positions are played in space where collisions are not as frequent, it is not as important to score a 70, but nonetheless, I am intrigued by perimeter players who score well on this combination score.
This year, we have a number of players who crossed the 70 mark and we have the rare few that have crossed the 80 mark. Believe me, not many NFL draft-eligible players ever get an 80-plus score. Here's a look at the top guys in this year's draft that have the combination of strength, power, explosiveness and agility to excel. Mario Williams, the top defensive end in the draft class, is off the charts when it comes to this combo score and has one of the highest scores I have ever seen.
There were a few other athletes who broke the 70 barrier like UTEP's Thomas Howard, Colorado's Joe Klopfenstein, Virginia's Kai Parham, and Alabama's Mark Anderson. But their football grades were not as high as the top 15 listed above. I would say that as a team gets into the third round and lower, it may be a good idea to take a look at players with a grade as close to 70 as possible to take a chance on a guy with the tools to work with over the next few years.
How impressive is it that a safety (Michael Huff) and a running back (DeAngelo Williams) and a cornerback (Antonio Cromartie) scored as well as they did among the defensive linemen and linebackers. As for the other positions, here's a look at some of the top scorers that at least get a third-round grade.
At no time do I believe any measurable or a combination of measurables replace what I can watch on tape when the athlete performs in a football game. But when it comes to putting the puzzle together and separating packs of players with similar production and grades, I do like to take a look at this combo score.
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