Top picks not always worthy of savior status
here is no doubt that the fast-approaching NFL draft brings a buzz to the media and the fans that is second only to playoff games.
For some reason, the top 32 players selected from the college ranks make a lot of money and the dreams and hopes of the franchise rest squarely on the shoulders of these young men.
Who gets Reggie Bush? Is Matt Leinart the next great quarterback? How far up does a team have to go to get Jay Cutler? Who can resist the athleticism of Vince Young? Is D'Brickashaw Ferguson the next Willie Roaf? Has anyone looked better coming out of college as a defensive end than Mario Williams? You get the picture!
Well, before we get too caught up in the hype, I thought it would be a good idea to go back and look at last year's top pick for each club. (I included the second-round selection of teams that didn't have a first-round pick, and four teams had two first-round selections.) The top 36 players, if you will, and how much bang for the buck the teams got for their picks.
In the past two years, this "elite" group of program-savers averaged about a $3 million signing bonus and a salary of about $500,000. In plain English, NFL teams will spend about $100 million in bonus money and another $20 million in salary on the top 36 players drafted this year, just like they did last year. In fact, with the new CBA, teams might spend even more money.
Forgetting production, which takes time to develop, here's a look at the amount of time the top players were on the field learning how to play the pro game. A few years from now, a number of this year's top draft picks will claim they are underpaid but they will conveniently forget how much money they made back in their rookie year and what the club got in return for the cash.
The average top pick from the 2005 draft started seven games last season. There were only three 16-game starters: New England's Logan Mankins, Kansas City's Derrick Johnson and Dallas' DeMarcus Ware. Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay), Chris Spencer (Seattle) and Jason Campbell (Washington) didn't start a game.
When it came to the number of plays in a game, 20 of the 36 played more than 50 percent of the plays in each game and the average percentage of plays for these top 2005 draft picks was 49 percent. Got the picture? An average signing bonus of $3 million, an average salary of $500,000 and less than half the plays: overpaid or underpaid?
Since they averaged less than half the snaps on offense and defense, you would think they must have been on most of the special teams. Seven of these high-priced players did not play one snap of special teams. The average number of special-teams plays per player for the 16-game schedule was 62 plays, or slightly under four plays per game.
Thomas Davis of the Panthers contributed the most with 257 special-teams plays. The next closest rookie was Steelers tight end Heath Miller with 162 plays. The average NFL team has close to 500 special-teams per season. NFL special-teams coaches can look forward to the top rookies contributing on about 12 percent of the special-teams plays, but they also know some of their better veteran special-teams players get released or not re-signed to accommodate the big rookie salaries.
So, who got their money's worth in sweat last year from their top pick? Keyshawn Johnson made a point to me the other day when I asked him the question, "Now that you are free to talk to any team, who would want you?" The first thing he said was a team that wants a guy who plays over 1,000 plays a season every year. That point stuck with me all week.
Cedric Benson made just one start for Chicago despite being picked fourth overall. The top 36 players in the draft last year produced only one player with 1,000-plus plays -- Logan Mankins. There were some other rookies that combined their special-teams plays with their regular offense or defense plays to give their team its money's worth: Derrick Johnson (1,113 plays), Mankins (1,114), Pacman Jones (954), Heath Miller (945), Jammal Brown (893) and Fabian Washington (890).
I understand and agree with the fact that quarterbacks take time to develop, and sitting the first season is part of the process. I also understand that injuries play a big part in playing time.
But something just doesn't sit right with me when the money doesn't equal the work. If the average top pick averages seven starts, less than 50 percent of the snaps, and 12 percent of the special-teams plays, then maybe there should be an adjustment in how much these players in training make.
A very successful Wall Street broker told me that at his firm, the young brokers don't really have a change in base pay for three years, but the bonuses go up as the brokers become more competent. That sounds like a good formula to me.
For some reason, the top 32 players selected from the college ranks make a lot of money and the dreams and hopes of the franchise rest squarely on the shoulders of these young men.
Who gets Reggie Bush? Is Matt Leinart the next great quarterback? How far up does a team have to go to get Jay Cutler? Who can resist the athleticism of Vince Young? Is D'Brickashaw Ferguson the next Willie Roaf? Has anyone looked better coming out of college as a defensive end than Mario Williams? You get the picture!
Well, before we get too caught up in the hype, I thought it would be a good idea to go back and look at last year's top pick for each club. (I included the second-round selection of teams that didn't have a first-round pick, and four teams had two first-round selections.) The top 36 players, if you will, and how much bang for the buck the teams got for their picks.
In the past two years, this "elite" group of program-savers averaged about a $3 million signing bonus and a salary of about $500,000. In plain English, NFL teams will spend about $100 million in bonus money and another $20 million in salary on the top 36 players drafted this year, just like they did last year. In fact, with the new CBA, teams might spend even more money.
Forgetting production, which takes time to develop, here's a look at the amount of time the top players were on the field learning how to play the pro game. A few years from now, a number of this year's top draft picks will claim they are underpaid but they will conveniently forget how much money they made back in their rookie year and what the club got in return for the cash.
The average top pick from the 2005 draft started seven games last season. There were only three 16-game starters: New England's Logan Mankins, Kansas City's Derrick Johnson and Dallas' DeMarcus Ware. Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay), Chris Spencer (Seattle) and Jason Campbell (Washington) didn't start a game.
When it came to the number of plays in a game, 20 of the 36 played more than 50 percent of the plays in each game and the average percentage of plays for these top 2005 draft picks was 49 percent. Got the picture? An average signing bonus of $3 million, an average salary of $500,000 and less than half the plays: overpaid or underpaid?
Since they averaged less than half the snaps on offense and defense, you would think they must have been on most of the special teams. Seven of these high-priced players did not play one snap of special teams. The average number of special-teams plays per player for the 16-game schedule was 62 plays, or slightly under four plays per game.
Thomas Davis of the Panthers contributed the most with 257 special-teams plays. The next closest rookie was Steelers tight end Heath Miller with 162 plays. The average NFL team has close to 500 special-teams per season. NFL special-teams coaches can look forward to the top rookies contributing on about 12 percent of the special-teams plays, but they also know some of their better veteran special-teams players get released or not re-signed to accommodate the big rookie salaries.
So, who got their money's worth in sweat last year from their top pick? Keyshawn Johnson made a point to me the other day when I asked him the question, "Now that you are free to talk to any team, who would want you?" The first thing he said was a team that wants a guy who plays over 1,000 plays a season every year. That point stuck with me all week.
Cedric Benson made just one start for Chicago despite being picked fourth overall. The top 36 players in the draft last year produced only one player with 1,000-plus plays -- Logan Mankins. There were some other rookies that combined their special-teams plays with their regular offense or defense plays to give their team its money's worth: Derrick Johnson (1,113 plays), Mankins (1,114), Pacman Jones (954), Heath Miller (945), Jammal Brown (893) and Fabian Washington (890).
I understand and agree with the fact that quarterbacks take time to develop, and sitting the first season is part of the process. I also understand that injuries play a big part in playing time.
But something just doesn't sit right with me when the money doesn't equal the work. If the average top pick averages seven starts, less than 50 percent of the snaps, and 12 percent of the special-teams plays, then maybe there should be an adjustment in how much these players in training make.
A very successful Wall Street broker told me that at his firm, the young brokers don't really have a change in base pay for three years, but the bonuses go up as the brokers become more competent. That sounds like a good formula to me.
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